In the first post of this series, I addressed how LonWorks end-of-life (EOL) is impacting the long-term reliability and operations of passenger train fleets. My second post discussed why Ethernet technology is the best choice as a LonWorks replacement, acting as a bridge for aging trains and equipment that need to make this transition. My final post zooms out beyond LonWorks to discuss the greater challenges for passenger trains posed by the trends in the electronics component industry.
Given the long service life of the mechanical components of trains, the more limited lifespan of onboard electronic equipment continues to challenge transit authorities and train manufacturers. New trends in the semiconductor market are exacerbating this problem. Let’s look at the issues and how proper planning and choice of technology partners can help.
The technology end-of-life challenge is a continuous one
The emergence of electronic automation within passenger rail happened over several decades, generally following industrial automation trends. And today, in a world where consumer technology is increasingly powerful, the train industry continues to struggle to meet passenger-driven expectations while delivering robust, safe and maintainable rolling stock for transit authorities, operators and maintainers.
To keep up with these demands, many new technologies are being introduced at the same time as many older ones are being superseded by more powerful alternatives. This means that some well-established technologies are no longer being supported and replacement parts are no longer being produced. And as in the example of LonWorks, the end of life of each technology can put the reliability of train operations at risk.
Replacing a technology in hundreds of trains has always required a lot of planning, investment, and expertise. However, there were typically few impediments to procurement, as the supply of electronic components was essentially stable over several decades. This is not the case anymore.
COVID and AI have affected electronic component supply
One impact of COVID was a change in the stability of supply for electronic components. In many cases, we saw much more sudden end-of-life notices from chip manufacturers (or no notices at all). These shortened EOL notices for components have become commonplace, making designs obsolete without warning in some cases. LonWorks is a prime example.
In addition, the recent AI boom has created significantly increased demand for both memory and CPUs, which is impacting availability, lead times and prices for these types of components. In some cases, we’ve seen prices increase as high as 400% over pre-COVID levels and lead times stretch beyond a year.
These trends are completely at odds with the long project cycles and service life of trains. Components can become obsolete before equipment even goes to serial production. In some cases, transit authorities are asking suppliers to provide up to 30 years of product availability as part of a rolling stock contract.
Managing component end-of-life is critical
The real impact of these new trends will be seen most obviously in cost increases and delays. For suppliers, this means that care has to be taken to ensure that risks are covered so that complex contracts with large penalties can be successfully delivered. In many cases, this means carrying more inventory, i.e. the Just-in-Time (JIT) pendulum is swinging the other way.
It also points to the fact that caution should be taken to select suppliers who understand how to manage these issues with respect to the rail industry. It could be tempting from a cost and lead time point of view to select industrial automation or consumer products. However, we would caution that the outcomes could be disastrous from both a reliability and continuity of supply point of view.
If your transit authority is currently planning for LonWorks replacement or experiencing EOL issues for any other onboard electronic equipment, Quester Tangent has the experience and technologies to help you through each transition. Long-term planning and support are integral to how we work. Our Total TrainLife Care™ 20-year guarantee helps ensure you get the greatest longevity at the lowest total cost of ownership for fleet equipment. This includes early notifications and a defined timeline and action plan for resolving end-of-life issues. Contact us for a free consultation.